The Future of Artificial General Intelligence
The former Google CEO Eric Schmidt claims that the world is only three to five years away from achieving “artificial general intelligence,” which could match or even surpass the capabilities of today’s brightest human thinkers and creators.
This prediction, if accurate, could have profound implications for the music industry and other creative fields.
“In three to five years, we will have what is called (artificial) general intelligence, AGI, which can be defined as a system that is as smart as the smartest mathematician, physicist, artist, writer, thinker, politician … You get the idea,” Schmidt articulated during a panel discussion with Jeanne Meser, leading the podcast NATSEC Tech for the Project of Special Competitive Research.
Schmidt explained that this advancement would stem from a process termed “Recursive self-improvement“, in which AI algorithms autonomously learn and enhance their abilities—a process he claims is already underway.
The Implications for the Creative Industry
According to Schmidt, research teams in OpenAI and Anthropic—two leading AI entities facing legal challenges for allegedly infringing on the copyrights of authors and composers to develop their models—are currently producing 10% to 20% of their programming code independently. This trend may bring about artificial general intelligence sooner than expected.
“What happens when each of us possesses the equivalent of the smartest individual (working) on every problem in our pocket?” he posed.
Schmidt contended that, despite widespread discussions around AI in recent years, the technology is not being “overhyped” but rather “underestimated,” as the extent and speed of the changes it may bring are not fully grasped by the public.
“This is happening quicker than … Our society, our democracy, and our laws will have to adjust, and the consequences are numerous. Hence, it’s insufficient; people do not comprehend what happens when intelligence at this level becomes largely accessible,” he concluded.
“This is happening quicker than … Our society, our democracy, will redefine our laws, and there will be numerous consequences … People do not grasp the implications when intelligence at this level becomes largely accessible.”
Eric Schmidt
Such predictions may not be what recording companies and music rights holders wish to hear.
Since the rapid advancement of AI technology, organizations like the Human Art Campaign have pushed for policies that prioritize human creativity. Meanwhile, music recording firms, publishers, and copyright owners are seeking accountability from AI developers for unauthorized usage of protected materials, creating content that competes with human artistic endeavors. Many in the music industry want to embrace AI as a tool to enhance music rather than replace it.
Schmidt’s assertion, if accurate, suggests that the path forward for human artistry may become more complex. While copyright disputes relating to AI were not directly addressed during the panel discussion, Schmidt’s remarks indicate that lawmakers are focused on the geopolitical implications of the U.S.-China rivalry surrounding AI dominance.
Given that tech companies operate on “network effects,” the leading player in the industry typically captures a significant market share—consider Google, Netflix, or Spotify. Consequently, the stakes in the U.S.-China race are incredibly high. Schmidt even noted that when artificial superintelligence approaches reality, a lagging nation might resort to war rather than risk falling behind.
Concerns about losing this geopolitical tech race have led figures like Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk to advocate for the removal of all intellectual property laws, despite the evident harm such measures could inflict on the economy.
Interestingly, Schmidt does not express significant concern over the potential for these powerful AI tools to displace human creators and jobs. He believes that automation might resolve the declining birthrate issue, which is currently a global phenomenon.
“Many assume that automation will replace and eliminate jobs. If you examine the history of automation beginning with the powerful weaving machines 300 years ago, jobs evolve, but more new jobs are created than lost … Convince me this time is different,” he stated.
Schmidt cited examples from Asia, noting a growing preference in some countries for smaller families, where birth rates have plummeted below one child per woman. He emphasized, “They are diminishing rapidly, so Asian countries are quickly automating the processes I’ve described to maintain workforce productivity.”
For artists and composers, however, this outlook offers little reassurance as they face the reality of competing with technologies potentially smarter than any human alive today.
